Gusa hari igihe hatutumba intambara zigatera ubwoba Isi yose n’utagize ubwoba kubera kudasobanukirwa ingaruka z’iyo ntambara ku buzima bwe bwite, agaterwa ubwoba n’ibihuha n’induru ziri muri iyo ntambara.

Icyoba cy’intambara hagati ya Iran na Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, ntigiterwa n’uburemere bw’ibyo bihugu gusa, ahubwo gishingiye ku karere irimo gututumbamo n’inyungu cyangwa ingaruka gafite ku bukungu bw’Isi.

Ni mu gihe uyu munsi ishingiye ku bifatika (monde matériel) nta muco cg uburenganzira bwa muntu bubaho igihe bibangamiye ubukungu bw’abanyembaraga.

Iyi ntambara iramutse ibaye yafunga umuhora wa Hormuz (Strait of Hormuz), uyu ni umuhora muto cyane uri hagati ya Iran na Oman ufite ibilometero bitageze kuri 35, ariko unyuzwaho ubukungu bw’Isi bungana cyangwa burenga 20%.

Uretse ibihugu bicye cyane ubundi ibihugu byose bikungahaye kuri peteroli biyinyuza muri uwo muhora ijya ku isoko mpuzamahanga, kandi peteroli ikaba igifite ijambo ritaziguye ku buzima bwa buri wese utuye Isi uyu munsi.

Ibi ni byo bituma iyi ntambara ikomera cyane kandi ikagira ingaruka zikomeye no ku bihugu biri kure cyane ya wo harimo n’u Rwanda.

Impamvu si iya none

Iyi ntambara itutumba hagati ya Iran na Amerika impamvu zayo si iza none, zikomoka kuri “Revolution Islamique” yakozwe na Ayatollah Ali Khamenei mu 1979, akagusha ubutegetsi bwa Mohammad Reza Pahlavi akirukana akanabangamira inyungu zose za Amerika muri icyo gihugu cyari umufatanyabikorwa ukomeye wa Washington muri ako karere.

Aya makimbirane ya Iran na Amerika yatumye habaho ibyo bita (guère pour procuration), bishaka kuvuga igihugu kirwana n’ikindi ku nyungu z’ikindi gihugu kidashaka kugaragara muri iyo ntambara.

Aha ni ho Iraq yarwaniraga Amerika hagamijwe kugabanya imbaraga za Iran zari zarubatswe na Amerika no gutuma ubutegetsi bushya muri Iran butabona uko bwiyubaka ngo bukomere.

Ariko muri ibyo bihe by’intambara na none hari igitutu cy’amakimbirane hagati y’imyemerere ishingiye ku idini ya Islam aho ibihugu byagenderaga kuri (sunnisme) byikangaga ko impinduramatwara ya Iran yabigeramo.

Ibyo bihugu byitwaje imyemerere ya (shiisme) kugira ngo byangishe abaturage babyo Iran n’ibyayo kuko iyo mpinduramatwara yari ishingiye ku bukangurambaga rusange (mobilisation de masse).

Muri iyo myaka ni bwo hashowe amafaranga menshi cyane mu kwamamaza ibyo bice byombi hirya no hino ku isi no mu Rwanda ni bwo twamenye ko bibaho.

Ibyo byatumye ibihugu byose byo muri (golf) byishyira hamwe na Iraq mu kurwana na Iran, atari ukubera ko bapfa imyemerere ahubwo batinya iyamamara ry’impinduramatwara mu bihugu byabo.

Kuri ibyo bibazo byose hari n’ikindi kibazo gikomeye kurusha ibyo. Ubwo Amerika itifuzaga na gato ko muri ako karere habamo igihugu kirusha Israel imbaraga za gisirikare kuko byashyiraga mu gusenya Israel burundu.

Ibi byaje bisanga amahame y’impinduramatwara ya Iran yamaganaga ukubaho kwa Leta ya Israel ndetse muri gahunda yayo y’igihe kirekire hakabamo gushyigikira no gufasha gahunda zo gusenya iyo leta.

Izi nzangano zose zatumye Iran ishyirwa mu bihano by’ubukungu n’ikoranabuhanga imazemo igihe kingana n’icyo iyo leta ishingiye kuri Islam imaze.

Ibi aho kugira ngo bitere Iran guca bugufi, ahubwo yatekereje kwiyubaka no kwihaza, bituma yiteza imbere mu bikorwaremezo, muri ikoranabuahnga no mu mbaraga za gisirikare zakomeje kuba ibanga kugeza ejobundi mu mwaka wa 2025 mu ntambara y’iminsi 12.

Ni bwo byabaye ngombwa ko Amerika ica bugufi bagakora udukoryo tunyuranye kugira ngo iyo ntambara ihagarare.

Guhagarara kw’iyo ntambara ntabwo byahagaritse impungenge za Amerika na Israel z’uko Iran ifite ubushobozi bwo gukora intwaro za kirimbuzi.

Nta n’ubwo byakuyeho imigambi ya Iran yo gusenya Israel, bityo intambara yahagaze mu buryo bumwe ariko ikomeza mu bundi buryo bwo gushaka uko ubutegetsi bwa Iran bwasenyuka burundu.

Amerika ishakisha umutungo kamere nk’iyawutaye, mu mpamvu

Kuri ibi bibazo by’akarande bifite inkomoko ndende, hiyongeraho na politiki ya Perezida Trump, uyobora Amerika nk’ikigo cy’ubucuruzi, igomba kubona inyungu z’ubukungu aho ziri hose, akaba afite umugambi wo kongera guha agaciro umugambi wa (pétrodollars), birimo gukumira aho BRICS yakura imbaraga ku migendekere y’ubukungu bw’Isi.

Nyuma ya Venezuela Iran ni yo yari itahiwe kugira ngo peteroli yabo igenzurwe kandi niba izanagurishwa igurishwe mu Madolari, ibyo nta n’ubwo bigarukira muri Iran gusa kuko ubu ngira ngo n’ingabo za Amerika zageze muri Nigeria igihugu cya Afurika gifite peteroli nyinshi.

Nta n’ubwo bizagarukira kuri peteroli gusa bizasatira n’ubundi bukungu bwose bushakirwa munsi y’ubutaka, akaba ari yo mpamvu ibisubizo by’intambara ya Repubulika Iharanira Demokarasi ya Congo (DRC) birimo gushakirwa i Washington DC, aho badashaka cyangwa badashoboye no kucyumva mu mizi yacyo.

Rero intasi za Mossad n’ibyitso byazo muri Iran, bitwaje ikibazo cy’ubukungu ihenda ry’ibikenerwa by’ibanze no kubura kw’ifaranga mu baturage (circulation monétaire), bahagurikiriza abaturage kwigaragambya, ibyo bizahaza cyane Leta ya Iran kugeza magingo aya, ariko bikaba bimaze kugaragara ko iyo myigaragambyo idahagije kugira ngo ihirike ubutegetsi bwa Iran.

Ubu rero ukoze ubusesenguzi nyabwo, Amerika gutwara ubwato bwayo n’abasirikare benshi hafi ya Iran ntabwo bisobanura ko Amerika ishaka intambara, kuko n’ubwo Amerika iri kure ariko hari ingaruka zayigeraho haba mu bukungu, dipolomasi na “influence mondiale” ndetse n’igisirikare cyayo kiri muri ako karere cyagerwaho n’izo ngaruka, ibyo byose ni ibitera Amerika gutekereza kenshi kuri iyo ntambara.

Ahubwo kiriya ni igitutu barimo gushyira kuri Iran ivuye mu ntambara y’iminsi 12 yayizahaje ikanayitwara byinshi byaba mu mafaranga cyangwa mu mbaraga za gisirikare, kugira ngo barebe ko yaca bugufi bakayibonaho ibyo bayikeneyeho hatarinze habaho intambara.

Ibyo bayikeneyeho cyane cyane ni uguha amahoro Israel, guhagarika burundu umushinga w’intwaro za kirimbuzi, gusenya imitwe ishamikiye kuri Iran yemejwe nk’imitwe y’Iterabwoba (Hezbollah yo muri Liban, Houthi yo muri Yemen, Badri Organization Iraq n’iyindi myinshi) no guhagarika inkunga yayo itera Hamas, kuri ibyo hakiyongeraho ikibazo cya peteroli yayo ikwiye kugurwa mu Madolari.

Iran na yo nta nyungu na busa ifite mu ntambara uretse ko ifite kurwana ku kubaho kwayo. Izi neza ko idafite imbaraga za gisirikare zishobora guhangana na Amerika igihe yaterwa n’ibisazi igahitamo intambara.

Byanze bikunze ifite ibyo yakwemera kurekura kugira ngo umwuka w’intambara uve mu marembo yayo, gusa kuri iyi ngingo Iran ifite ingingo imwe ikomeye ikeneye ko iganirwaho. Ni ingingo yo gukurirwaho ibihano by’ubukungu.

Mu gushaka guhatira Amerika kuganira kuri iyi ngingo mu nyungu za Iran, bishobora gutuma Iran ikora amakosa ya gisirikare agamije kwerekana imbaraga bikaba byateza intambara yeruye.

Nubwo Amerika ishyira ku meza ibibazo bikomeye kandi bisa n’ibirimo amananiza, ariko izi neza ko byose idashobora kubibona, mu gihe Iran izaba yemeye kugabanya umuvuduko wayo ugana ku ngufu za nucléaire, ikemera ko peteroli yabo igenzurwa, imitwe yitwaje intwaro iyishamikiyeho igaha Israel amahoro, Amerika izaba igeze ku byo ishaka, ibindi bashobora kubyirengagiza.

Ibihugu bisanzwe ari ibifatanyabikorwa bikomeye bya Amerika biri muri ako gace cyane cyane Arabie Saoudite, Leta Zunze Ubumwe z’Abarabu (UAE), Kuwait, Oman na Qatar, ni byo byaba intego y’ibikorwa bya gisirikare bya Iran mu gihe haba habaye intambara, bityo na byo bifite inshingano yo gukora uko bishoboye ngo bikumire ukubaho kw’iyo ntambara.

Ubu nandika ibi, igihugu cya Turikiya gifatanyije na Qatar cyatangije imishyikirano mu buryo buziguye kandi amakuru menshi acaracara ahamya ko hari iby’ingenzi birimo kumvikanwaho nubwo bitaragera ku rwego rwo guhagarika imvugo za ndigabo.

No muri Oman habaye imishyikirano y’imbona nkubone yibanze ku kibazo cy’umushongi wa ‘uranium’ wa Iran, Perezida Trump yavuze ko ibiganiro byagenze neza nubwo yabaye ihagaze by’agateganyo.

Ibi byose rero bigaragaza ko mu kuri ibyago byo kubaho kw’intambara yeruye hagati ya Amerika na Iran muri kiriya kigobe ari bicye cyane bitagera kuri 30%, ibyo byago bishobora kuzamuka bikagera kuri 60% hagize impanuka iba kimwe mu gisirikare kikarasa ku kindi kuko byegeranye cyane.

Ni yo mpamvu muri politiki ya gisirikare atari byiza kwegeranya ibisirikare kuko intambara ishobora kuvuka biturutse ku mpanuka.

Na none ibyago by’intambara bishobora kuzamuka, hagize uruhande rwibeshya rugakora igitero n’iyo cyaba gito kugira ngo rushyire urundi ku gitutu cyo kwemera ibyo gisabwa, ariko uko byagenda kose iyi ntambara yaba iy’isanzure n’ikirere Amerika ntabwo yiteguye kohereza ingabo muri Iran gukuraho ubutegetsi kuko batanafite ubusimbura.

Burya muri Iran hari “akavuyo” ariko nta gice cy’abatavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi gikomeye gihari, kandi amahanga afite ubunararibonye bubi kuri Libye gukuraho ubutegetsi udafite ubusimbura.

Kuri iyi ngingo na none ihangana rya Trump n’Aba- Démocrate muri Amerika ntirishobora gutuma akora ikosa risa n’iryo Aba-Démocrate bakoze, kuko Trump ashinja Barack Obama gusenya Libya akuraho Gadhafi mu buryo budateguwe neza.

Indi ngingo ikomeye cyane ishobora gutuma iriya ntambara iba kandi ikagira ishusho itigeze iteganwa n’uwo ari we wese, ni inyungu za Israel muri iyo ntambara.

Ku bwa Israel inyungu zayo zikomeye ni uko iriya ntambara iba kandi ikaba intambara yeruye igamije gusenya no gukuraho Leta ya Iran, ubuhanga n’ubushobozi bwa Israel bushobora gukoreshwa mu kuburizamo ibiganiro uko byaba bisa kose kandi hakaboneka n’impamvu y’intambara. Iyi ngingo isaba abacurabwenge ba Amerika kuba maso cyane.

Gusa mu gusoza, intambara ntiyubaka irasenya hari ibibazo bishobora gukemurwa n’intambara ariko ikirangiza impamvu z’intambara burundu nk’uko Nyakubahwa Peresida wa Repubulika y’u Rwanda, Paul Kagame abivuga, ni uko abarwana bombi bagira amahoro.

Ikindi ni uko Isi n’Umuryango mpuzamahanga (niba ubaho koko) wakabaye ushakisha uburyo bwiza bwo gusaranganya ubutunzi bw’Isi kuko Isi nk’umubumbe ni uw’abawutuye bose n’ibyiza biwurimo ni ibyabo bose, ubwikanyize no kwirundaho nta gihe na kimwe bizatanga amahoro uretse agahenge k’igihe gito.

Rizinde M. Shaffiy